Today saw Russia launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In response to Russia’s actions, countries around the world have imposed sanctions on the nation:
The US announced sanctions on major Russian financial institutions (VEB and PSB)
British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, has announced sanctions on 5 Russian banks and 3 wealthy Russian businessmen with close links to Russia
Germany has taken steps to halt the process of certifying the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline
Commodity prices are expected to spike significantly in the short term due to supply disruptions. Ukraine and Russia are major producers and exporters of commodities such as natural gas, corn, and wheat.
The Smart Cube has estimated the likely impact on prices as follows:
As Russia accounts for roughly 40% of European gas supply, the expected price movement (between March 2022 and May 2022) of natural gas is anticipated to be between 18%-28%
The price of both corn and wheat is expected to rise by 10%-20%
These figures have been calculated using monthly and daily price data over the last two decades and analysing the dynamic impact of previous conflicts, such as the 2014 Ukraine-Russia conflict. Though price rises are imminent in light of Russia’s invasion, the magnitude of the rise remains ambiguous.
For more in depth analysis of the figures please see here for an account by Hemant Bansal, Commodity Solution Lead at The Smart Cube.